With less than a week to go, the 2020 US presidential elections are coming to a climax and Biden is generally leading Trump in the national polls. According to Forbes, more than 50 million have already cast their votes early from an estimated pool of 245 million eligible voters – 20.41% – leading some experts to predict a record-setting voter turnout this year, over 150 million-plus.
However, as we saw from the 2016 elections, the popular vote means little without sufficient turnout in the right place. Utilizing Woobler’s US demographic database, the EDI team investigated who decides the winner of a US presidential election.
The US Presidential Election – how it works

This means voters decide the contest on a state-level instead of a national, popular vote.
Out of the 50 states in America, most lean strongly towards either Republican or Democrats. Candidates will, therefore, usually focus on appealing to voters in a handful of states that are likely to vote in either direction to secure victory – known as battleground states or swing states.
Battleground States – Republican or Democrat?

Exhibit 1: 2008 – 2016 US election battleground states
Arizona | 2,062,810 | 39.8 | 84,904 |
Republican |
208,422 |
Republican |
195,404 |
Republican |
Florida | 9,386,750 | 58.1 | 119,770 |
Republican |
74,309 |
Democrat |
236,148 |
Democrat |
Georgia | 4,029,564 | 52.3 | 231,323 |
Republican |
304,861 |
Republican |
204,636 |
Republican |
Michigan | 4,790,917 | 62.1 | 11,612 |
Republican |
449,313 |
Democrat |
823,940 |
Democrat |
Minnesota | 2,916,404 | 69.4 | 43,785 |
Democrat |
225,942 |
Democrat |
297,945 |
Democrat |
North Carolina | 4,629,471 | 59.6 | 177,529 |
Republican |
92,004 |
Republican |
14,177 |
Democrat |
Pennsylvania | 5,970,107 | 59.1 | 68,236 |
Republican |
309,840 |
Democrat |
620,478 |
Democrat |
Wisconsin | 2,937,326 | 65.7 | 22,871 |
Republican |
213,019 |
Democrat |
414,818 |
Democrat |
A closer look at battleground states
The total 2016 electorate was estimated to be approximately 138 million votes, of which, 36,723,349 (26.61%) originated from battleground states according to Woobler.
Voter turnout in these states ranged between 39.8-69.4%, with Minnesota possessing the highest participation rate. Although Minnesota voted Democrat in all 3 previous elections, their majority have fallen remarkably by roughly 85.3% from 297,945 to 43,785. Interestingly the Republican majority in Arizona also fell, approximately 56.5% between 2012-2016, indicating widerspread low turnout rates.
Low voter turnout – is this an issue?
Increasingly lower turnout rates have been an ongoing trend since 1964. The 2016 election saw a national turnout rate of 56%, a 20-year low according to CNN – the last 3 elections averaged at 56.9%. This has been argued as a major factor to Trump’s 2016 victory.
Exhibit 2: 2016 Voter participation
Conclusion –The US election decisionmaker

About Woobler
Woobler is a data connectivity company focused on mobility and location intelligence. Knowledge Graphs are emerging as an evolutionary step in the AI/Data Science race. Highly precise and connected data are emerging as critical factors in expanding and improving Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Data Visualization. Ken previously spent 19 years at FactSet focused ‘Smart Data’ and data connectivity. Before joining FactSet, Ken founded Lionshares.com which was acquired by FactSet in 2001.