With less than a week to go, the 2020 US presidential elections are coming to a climax and Biden is generally leading Trump in the national polls. According to Forbes, more than 50 million have already cast their votes early from an estimated pool of 245 million eligible voters – 20.41% – leading some experts to predict a record-setting voter turnout this year, over 150 million-plus.

However, as we saw from the 2016 elections, the popular vote means little without sufficient turnout in the right place. Utilizing Woobler’s US demographic database, the EDI team investigated who decides the winner of a US presidential election.

The US Presidential Election – how it works

To become the US president, candidates compete to secure at least 270 out of 538 (50.18%) possible electorate votes. States in the US are allocated electorate college votes based in part on its population, and candidates are awarded all of the allocated electorate college votes if they can secure the popular vote on a state-level.

This means voters decide the contest on a state-level instead of a national, popular vote.

Out of the 50 states in America, most lean strongly towards either Republican or Democrats. Candidates will, therefore, usually focus on appealing to voters in a handful of states that are likely to vote in either direction to secure victory – known as battleground states or swing states.

Battleground States – Republican or Democrat?

In the 2016 presidential elections, 26.61% of votes originated from battleground states according to Woobler. Low voter turnout in these key battleground states for the Clinton campaign proved to be fatal, despite winning the overall popular vote, demonstrating their strategic importance:

Exhibit 1: 2008 – 2016 US election battleground states

State	2016 Total Votes Cast	Voter Part %	2016 Vote Diff	2016 Result	2012 Vote Diff	2012 Result	2008 Vote Diff	2008 Result
Arizona	2,062,810	39.8	84,904	Republican	208,422	Republican	195,404	Republican
Florida	9,386,750	58.1	119,770	Republican	74,309	Democrat	236,148	Democrat
Georgia	4,029,564	52.3	231,323	Republican	304,861	Republican	204,636	Republican
Michigan	4,790,917	62.1	11,612	Republican	449,313	Democrat	823,940	Democrat
Minnesota	2,916,404	69.4	43,785	Democrat	225,942	Democrat	297,945	Democrat
North Carolina	4,629,471	59.6	177,529	Republican	92,004	Republican	14,177	Democrat
Pennsylvania	5,970,107	59.1	68,236	Republican	309,840	Democrat	620,478	Democrat
Wisconsin	2,937,326	65.7	22,871	Republican	213,019	Democrat	414,818	Democrat

Source: Woobler

A closer look at battleground states

The total 2016 electorate was estimated to be approximately 138 million votes, of which, 36,723,349 (26.61%) originated from battleground states according to Woobler.

Voter turnout in these states ranged between 39.8-69.4%, with Minnesota possessing the highest participation rate. Although Minnesota voted Democrat in all 3 previous elections, their majority have fallen remarkably by roughly 85.3% from 297,945 to 43,785. Interestingly the Republican majority in Arizona also fell, approximately 56.5% between 2012-2016, indicating widerspread low turnout rates.

Low voter turnout – is this an issue?

Increasingly lower turnout rates have been an ongoing trend since 1964. The 2016 election saw a national turnout rate of 56%, a 20-year low according to CNN – the last 3 elections averaged at 56.9%. This has been argued as a major factor to Trump’s 2016 victory.

Exhibit 2: 2016 Voter participation

Source: Woobler

Conclusion –The US election decisionmaker

If the 2016 US presidential election can provide any indication of the upcoming 2020 election results, the last presidential election centered on appealing to 26.61% of the total electorate in battleground states. The difference between Republican and Democrat votes (exhibit 1) works out to be merely 716,245, meaning Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 came down to only 1.95% of total votes cast in battleground states and the 45^th President of the United States was decided by merely 0.52% of the total electorate in 2016.